Morgan Stanley downgraded Allstate (NYSE: ALL) to Equalweight from Overweight and lowered its price target to $215, pointing to a more competitive operating environment and a maturing investment thesis.
The analyst said the prior case for Allstate—centered on attractive valuation, improving growth, and margins exceeding consensus expectations—had largely played out. While steady earnings from the company’s homeowners insurance business were expected to provide some support in 2026, Morgan Stanley said it was more prudent to adopt a neutral stance given rising competition.
The firm reduced its price target to $215 per share, applying an estimated 8.9x price-to-earnings multiple to projected 2027 earnings per share of $24.07, reflecting a softening auto underwriting cycle. The target also implied an estimated 1.6x price-to-book valuation, excluding AOCI, based on a projected 2027 operating return on equity of 18.5%.
