Roblox (NYSE: RBLX) saw its price target lowered to $85 from $100 by Jefferies, which maintained a Hold rating ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release.
Jefferies said sentiment remained cautious going into the results, with investors focused on the fiscal 2026 bookings outlook as a potential reset point for expectations. While bullish investors were hoping for a 20% year-over-year bookings growth guide for fiscal 2026, the firm noted growing concern that guidance could come in lower, or that no full-year guide might be issued.
User trends into January were described as stable month over month since November, reducing near-term risk for the fourth quarter and first quarter. However, Jefferies said uncertainty in the second half of the year, against difficult year-over-year comparisons, was likely to continue weighing on the stock.
Roblox shares were down 38% since third-quarter 2025 earnings, despite the company delivering the strongest results in its history. Concerns around slower 2026 bookings growth relative to the long-term target of over 20% and potential EBITDA margin compression had driven multiple contraction, with the valuation declining from 45x to 30x forward EBITDA.
Jefferies based its revised $85 price target on a 30x multiple applied to fiscal 2026 EBITDA of $1.93 billion, noting that positioning appeared skewed to the downside as investors braced for conservative guidance, while also viewing fiscal 2026 as a clearing event for expectations.
