Shares of ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) jumped more than 8% intraday on Friday after Aletheia Capital double upgraded the stock to Buy from Sell and sharply raised its price target.
Aletheia increased its price target to €1,250, or $1,500 per ADR, from €640, or $750, and based the new valuation on a 30x fiscal 2027 earnings multiple. The upgrade reflected significantly higher fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates, incorporating expectations for a new wave of investment expansions and semiconductor capacity upgrades.
The firm said upside catalysts included stronger-than-expected demand for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools from DRAM manufacturers, resilient demand for deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems from China in fiscal 2026, and a potential surge in demand from TSMC in fiscal 2027.
Aletheia estimated that TSMC alone could install 40 to 45 EUV tools as it expanded advanced capacity by 40% to 50% in 2027, potentially lifting total EUV shipments to 75 to 80 units—near ASML’s maximum capacity. As a result, the firm forecast that low-NA EUV revenue would rise by roughly one-third in fiscal 2026 and accelerate by 50% to 60% in fiscal 2027, supported by higher volumes and a richer product mix.
Overall, Aletheia projected ASML’s sales growth to reach the mid-teens in fiscal 2026 and accelerate to the mid-twenties in fiscal 2027, well above both company guidance and consensus expectations.
