Baird trimmed its price target on Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) to $815 from $820 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing lingering near-term risks to investor sentiment alongside a more balanced risk-reward setup than earlier in the year.
The analyst said that while Meta continued to face headline risks related to privacy, usage trends, and its strategic shift toward short-form video, expectations had become more realistic compared with three months ago. As a result, Baird encouraged investors to take advantage of potential pullbacks and position opportunistically.
Potential catalysts highlighted included clarity from first-quarter guidance and margin commentary, the launch of the next Llama model developed by Meta’s TBD Lab, and subsequent enhancements to Meta AI. Additional upside drivers included ongoing improvements in content ranking, relevance, and engagement metrics, accelerating monetization at WhatsApp and Threads, deeper penetration of Advantage+ automation tools, and longer-term optionality tied to wearables and custom silicon development.
The $815 price target was supported by a blend of a multi-year discounted cash flow analysis, a 30x multiple on 2026 estimated GAAP earnings, and a 15x multiple on 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA. These valuation assumptions fell within peer ranges of 10x–30x for 2026 earnings and 5x–30x for EV/EBITDA. Despite elevated risks, Baird said Meta’s market leadership, margin structure, diversified revenue streams, platform scale, and technology orientation could allow the company to regain a valuation premium versus peers over time.
