Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) shares fell over 3% intra-day today after TD Cowen downgraded the company from Buy to Hold, slashing the price target to $45 from $58, citing structural headwinds tied to weakening U.S. residential solar demand.
The analysts warn that the elimination of the federal solar tax credit (25D) at the end of 2025 will further pressure demand for customer-owned residential solar systems—a segment Enphase is heavily exposed to. This comes on top of an already difficult backdrop of elevated interest rates, which have curbed solar installations.
As Enphase positions itself as a premium-priced product, the firm believes it is more vulnerable to these demand disruptions. The new $45 price target is based on 14x TD Cowen’s revised 2026 EBITDA estimate, reflecting a more cautious outlook on both growth and profitability.
