Wolfe Research upgraded Fox Corporation (NASDAQ:FOXA) from Underperform to Peer Perform, citing easing macroeconomic risks and a stronger-than-expected rebound in sports advertising.
The firm had previously flagged FOX’s heavy dependence on TV ad revenue—nearly 40% of total sales—as a vulnerability, especially in light of past tariff threats and concerns over economic slowdown. However, with recession probabilities dropping to just 10% and upfront sports ad pricing climbing roughly 10% year-over-year, Wolfe now sees less downside risk.
FOX's significant exposure to the NFL, which may account for up to a quarter of its advertising income, gives the company access to large, loyal audiences and strong pricing power across both advertising and affiliate deals. On top of that, ongoing developments in Washington and within the Murdoch empire could raise the chances of premium asset sales—something the market hasn't fully reflected in FOX's current valuation, which trades at around 10 times forward free cash flow.
Given these improving dynamics, Wolfe no longer sees FOX as a clear underperformer relative to peers.
