Mizuho downgraded Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) to Underperform from Neutral and reduced its price target to $10 from $14, citing a weaker 2026 sales outlook as U.S. IRA credits fade. Shares fell more than 1% intra-day Monday.
The firm cut its 2026 delivery estimate to 60,000 units from 68,000 (versus consensus at 72,000), implying ~40% year-over-year growth—still challenging, and well below consensus expectations for ~69%. North American EV light-vehicle production was expected to be flat year over year, and Mizuho flagged General Motors’ $1.6 billion September-quarter EV impairment as a signal of broader category softness.
Rivian’s third-quarter 2025 volume of 13,000 units rose 25% sequentially, but the analysts noted average selling prices above $70,000 could constrain near-term demand ahead of the R2 launch planned for the first half of 2026. Mizuho lowered estimates to roughly 13% below consensus and warned U.S. BEV demand faced multiple headwinds.
