Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is a major global company in the aluminum industry. Its business includes mining bauxite, refining it into alumina, and producing primary aluminum. The company, with a market capitalization of about $17.49 billion, competes with firms like Constellium SE (NYSE: CSTM) and Ryerson Holding Corporation (NYSE: RYZ).
Reflecting a positive outlook, UBS analyst Daniel Major upgraded Alcoa to a "Buy" rating on May 22, 2026. A new price target of $80.00 was set for the stock. This target represents a potential upside of approximately 20.72% from its trading price of $66.27 at the time.
This analyst optimism is supported by a sharp rise in aluminum prices. Prices have surged nearly 90% since the Iran war began, as highlighted by 247wallst.com. CEO William Oplinger states that London Metal Exchange prices recently exceeded $3,600.00 per metric ton due to tight inventories and supply disruptions.
The company's stock performance reflects these market conditions. Alcoa shares have rallied 91.3% over the past six months, outperforming its industry's 87.7% return. This growth is linked to stronger demand, which helped increase first-quarter 2026 Aluminum segment sales to $2.54 billion.
However, some analyses present a more cautious view. According to GuruFocus, Alcoa is considered significantly overvalued, with its price of $66.27 well above an estimated fair value of $29.62. The company also faces challenges like rising costs and higher debt despite the favorable market.
